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Pondering the fate of the computer industry
By MIKE BERMAN
Scripps Howard News Service
July 11, 2001

Right now I'm just sitting here pondering the fate of the computer industry.

I sit back and watch as stocks rise and fall.

I watch the courts dabble in justice as they try to figure out what to do about Microsoft's lofty ambitions.

I go through the tons of hardware and software I'm buried in wondering if their manufacturers will go out of business before I can write about them.

It's all very confusing!

So, what are the results of all this pondering, besides a gigantic migraine headache? Conclusions drawn, not from fact, but pure conjecture.

First of all, there had to be some sort of shakeout in the market. There were just too many small companies trying to make a fast buck preying on the Internet and producing what I sometimes call "vanity tools" for computer geeks. You've seen them. They're the endless number of calendars, organizers, diagnostic programs and other goodies that the industry has convinced us we can't live without.

But only a few can survive. The others are bound for the bottomless depths of doom we all know as bankruptcy.

But they try to hang on. They go "public," declaring their availability on the NASDAQ or New York Stock Exchange. Their prices skyrocket, creating instant millionaires, and then plunge, creating instant paupers.

Have we seen the end of this foolishness? Nope!

These companies will come and go as long as the entrepreneurial spirit exists. But do me a favor: entrepreneur with your own money and stay away from the stock market. I'm tired of being dragged down with you!

Now for Microsoft ...

This case puzzles me.

In the beginning, I was angered that a few jealous rivals could force the Justice Department to penalize the king of the desktop computer industry. How dare they try to bully the man that made it easier for all of us to compute to work!

I mean, what company makes the most dominant operating system in the world?

What company has developed the most dominant word-processing software?

What company do I think of when I sit down to compute?

Microsoft! How dare they pick on these guys!

Then I began seeing smaller software manufacturers such as Access Software, WebTV and Visio disappearing. Where'd they go? Well, apparently Bill Gates also liked their products, so he bought the companies.

Then others began to disappear or reported huge revenue problems, because they couldn't compete. Could all of this be due to Uncle Bill's dominance? Naw! He's one of the good guys!

Then came the infamous, long and drawn-out court case as Janet Reno took on the giant and supposedly slew it. As a result, rumors of a court-mandated breakup of Microsoft's holdings began to surface.

But then reality, known as "the appeals process," set in.

Uncle Bill got a reprieve. Now we begin again.

So, I continue to ponder.

Google

Profits or Bust
How will the economic downturn affect your purchasing decisions when it comes to tech toys?

I will cut back on purchases.
I will only buy what I need.
I will be reluctant to upgrade what I have.
I will only pay cash for new tech toys.
It won't affect my purchasing decisions.
What economic downturn?

 


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